Peak Oil – An Overview

Peak Oil is a simple concept. There is a finite amount of petroleum in the ground and we are extracting this black gold faster than the earth can replenish it (much, much, much faster). Over the past 150 years, the general trend has been to extract more oil from the ground than we did the year before, with notable exceptions during the 1930’s and early 1980’s. At some point, we will no longer be able to extract as much as we did in the previous year. This is the point at which we will have reached Peak Oil.

M. King Hubbert: Patron Saint of Peak Oil M. King Hubbert proposed the theory of peak oil in 1956. Using data from oil wells that had already gone into decline, he predicted that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. In 1970, the United States produced more oil than it would in any year following. The following decline however, has not been as precipitous as Hubbert initially projected. U.S. oil production in the lower-48 (the region surveyed by Hubbert) totaled 1.55 billion barrels of oil in 2005, 32% higher than his estimate for 1970 predicted. Still, pretty good for a 35 year old prediction.

To understand why Peak Oil is such an important idea, think of all the petroleum products in your life. All plastics, like the inside of your car, your computer case, food storage, soda bottles, and furniture. Cosmetics, if you use them. The gas that runs your car. The jet fuel and diesel that propel international trade. Unless you live on a self-sufficient, organic farm, petroleum products are used to grow your food and/or transport it to where you live. I’m just scratching the surface here. Oil is a key ingredient in our modern world. As worldwide demand continues to grow, we know that at some point, we will begin to have less of this resource available to us.

The Question is not if, but when. Hubbert is not the only person that has attempted to predict peak oil. Current estimates for peak oil range from a couple years ago to 2030 and beyond. In the months to come, I will investigate these competing claims and examine what the world might be like with less oil.

Part 2: Peak Oil - When Will We Run Out (November 2008 Edition)
Part 3: Review - The Age of Oil

Further Reading

Wikipedia’s Article on Peak Oil
A Tribute to M. King Hubbert
The Oil Drum’s Peak Oil Overview